Through the analysis of the fundamentals of rubber, we believe that the global supply in November is still in the period of increased production, production or more than in October there is a significant lift. From the point of view of the domestic market, Yunnan producing areas of rubber still have a month of cutting cycle, while Hainan producing areas close to 2 months, so the light-colored rubber inventory will continue to be a small accumulation of inventory. On the contrary, dark-colored rubber due to the decline in arrivals and delay, the probability of a sustained decline in stocks is high. From the demand side, for the domestic market, under the support of national policies, tires continue to improve the probability of large, while the peripheral market due to more uncertainties later, the tire exports continue to be good situation will have further tests.
 In October, the domestic rubber main contract prices out of the first depression after the situation. The first week after the National Day, the rubber sector led the way, natural rubber, 20 rubber, synthetic rubber futures collective strength, RU2401 contract rose 6.53% in the first week. The main reason is that the supply side of the long holiday period is disturbed by the weather, resulting in limited raw material output, coupled with the continued recovery of downstream demand, as well as rumors of storage resurfaced, the market bullish atmosphere is obvious, and the price of rubber rose sharply.
November global natural rubber production or lift compared to October
According to the natural rubber cutting cycle, every year from April to November, the global rubber production will show an upward trend. early October, the main producing areas of Southeast Asia and other places by the weather disturbances, resulting in the stage of the supply showed a decline, pushing the price of rubber rebounded sharply.
November global demand to be further verified
From the ANRPC consumption situation, in August ANRPC consumption reached 898,800 tons, up 0.72% from the previous month, up 4.94% from the same period last year. According to ANRPC's 66% of global consumption, the global consumption in August is estimated to be around 1.34 million tons, and ANRPC's latest August 2023 report forecasts that the global consumption of natural rubber is expected to increase by 0.2% year-on-year to 15.567 million tons in 2023, which is a downward revision from the forecast in July. Among them, China's growth was revised up to 3.3% from 0.2% in the previous period, India's growth held steady to 5.7%, and Vietnam's growth was revised down to 1.4%.
Market Outlook
Through the analysis of the fundamentals of rubber, we believe that the global supply in November is still in the period of increased production, production or compared with October there is a significant rise. From the domestic market, Yunnan producing areas of rubber still have a month of cutting cycle, while Hainan producing areas close to 2 months, so the light-colored rubber inventory will continue to be a small accumulation of inventory. On the contrary, dark-colored rubber due to the decline in arrivals and delay, the probability of a sustained decline in stocks is high. From the demand side, for the domestic market, under the support of national policies, tires continue to improve the probability of large, while the peripheral market due to the late uncertainties, tire exports continue to improve the situation will have further tests.