On the night of October 23rd, the main rubber contracts continued to fluctuate, and on the 24th, they continued to fluctuate. After the positive demand data for rubber in the early stage is gradually digested by the market, the upstream positive data is also gradually digested. Under the pressure of a bearish macro atmosphere, it is expected that the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2401 contract will maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future.
Due to the recent bullish upstream fundamentals, limited raw material acquisition and finished product output, domestic futures prices have risen. However, from the perspective of global spot production and domestic imports, the bullish outlook is actually limited. From January to August, Vietnam exported 808600 tons of mixed rubber to China, an increase of 19.5% year-on-year from 676400 tons last year.
Cote d'Ivoire, which is relatively less affected by natural factors, has also seen an increase in finished rubber production and exports this year. Cote d'Ivoire's rubber production in 2023 will reach a record high of 1.5 million tons, up from 1.3 million tons in 2022. At present, Thailand, which is greatly affected by nature, is temporarily hindered from increasing production due to increased rainfall in the short term, and there is not much upstream pressure. On the macro level, due to the depreciation of the RMB, import pressure has increased recently.
The supply and cost side support the market to a high level, but the pressure on high price transactions is relatively high. The actual purchasing willingness and trading volume of factories are not optimistic, and the futures prices are stable and fluctuating.