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Raw material output constraints rubber shock consolidation dominated
2023-11-19

1、Domestic and foreign production areas increased rainfall, raw material output is blocked
Supply side, Southeast Asia's main producing areas are still in the peak season of rubber cutting, producing areas are affected by the stage of more rain, Thailand, Vietnam and other producing areas of increased rainfall, raw material output as a whole is blocked, raw material prices; Hainan producing areas of increased rainfall, out of the rubber is blocked; Yunnan producing areas of the weather is normal, the output of raw materials is normal. Domestic Yunnan producing areas will gradually enter the cut-off period, raw material purchase price performance firm. With the advent of winter, processing plant rubber collection and production enthusiasm, support the natural rubber market. As of November 12, 2023, Qingdao area of natural rubber bonded and general trade combined inventory of 723,500 tons, a decrease of 0.91 million tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 1.24%. Qingdao bonded area continues to de-stock, total inventory de-stocking slowed down.

2, tire enterprise start rate overall stable
Demand side, the current rubber tire enterprise start rate is stable overall: semi steel tire enterprise scheduling stability, most of the enterprises are still out of stock of snow tires, with the gradual scheduling of enterprises, the shortage of phenomenon has been eased; all-steel tire start rate is basically stable, slow shipments, the recent inventory has increased, the current to go to inventory.

Industry hot spots
1, China's General Administration of Customs data released on November 7, 2023 China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 630,000 tons in October, a year-on-year decrease of 2%.1-October China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 6,544,000 tons, an increase of 11.7%.

2, the latest data show that in the first 10 months of 2023, Côte d'Ivoire rubber exports totaled 1.284 million tons, compared with 1.086 million tons in the same period in 2022, an increase of 18.2%. Côte d'Ivoire is an important natural rubber producer in Africa. Côte d'Ivoire's rubber exports have increased over the years in recent years, as farmers have been driven by stable earnings to switch their sown crops from cocoa to rubber.

3、According to the Passenger Vehicle Association, the passenger car market retail sales reached 2.033 million units in October 2023, up 10.2% year-on-year and 0.7% sequentially. Cumulative retail sales this year totaled 17.267 million units, up 3.2% year-on-year.

5, according to Malaysia's Department of Statistics November 9 news, 2023 September exports of natural rubber increased by 4.6% year-on-year to 57,028 tons, down 0.8% from a year earlier. Of which 45.7% exported to China, the other in order of Germany 5.3%, Pakistan 5.3%, Portugal 2.9%, Turkey 2.3%. September Malaysia's import volume of gum was 88,845 tons, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year, an increase of 46.6% from the previous year. Standard rubber, concentrated latex, and other shapes of natural rubber are the main import categories, and their main import source countries are Thailand, Côte d'Ivoire, the Philippines, and Myanmar.

6, the latest data show that in the first three quarters of 2023, the United States imported a total of 184.58 million tires, down 18% year-on-year. Among them, passenger car tire imports fell 6% year-on-year to 12.08 million; truck tire imports fell 23% year-on-year to 35.26 million; aircraft tires fell 4.4% year-on-year to 230,000; motorcycle tires fell 37% year-on-year to 1.93 million; bicycle tires fell 61% year-on-year to 4.29 million.

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