In 2024, plasticizer industry chain supply is sufficient; demand is basically just demand-oriented. Raw material phthalic anhydride industry in 2024 will appear new and elimination of production capacity coexist, the situation of phased excess capacity or become the norm.DOP own supply and demand pattern of excess situation is difficult to break, and by the cost of transmission is obvious, is expected to 2024 trend will still show passive.

o-Xylene
On the supply side, in 2024, the domestic o-xylene new and withdrawn production capacity coexist, and the overall supply pattern may remain stable.
In terms of demand, from the downstream of o-xylene, the demand is relatively single, more than 90% still rely on o-phthalic anhydride. 2024 domestic phthalic anhydride industry is expected to add more than 300,000 tons of new production capacity, and most of them are naphthalene phthalic anhydride, o-phthalic anhydride with o-xylene as the raw material is expected to add about 140,000 tons.
In 2024, China's o-xylene market price may show a shocking ups and downs trend.

Phthalic anhydride
Domestic phthalic anhydride industry in 2024 will appear new and eliminated production capacity coexist, production capacity of phased overcapacity or become the norm. 2024 new phthalic anhydride production capacity is expected to reach 380,000 tons / year, the domestic phthalic anhydride industry supply and demand contradictions will become more and more prominent.
In 2024, phthalic anhydride industry still need to face the shrinking demand from the terminal plasticizer. Due to the squeeze of environmental plasticizers, the share of DOP declined, and the demand for phthalic anhydride also declined.
First of all, the trend of upstream raw material prices may be the biggest driving factor for phthalic anhydride price rise or fall.

Octanol
There are three sets of domestic units involved in commissioning in 2024.
Downstream plasticizer capacity release stagnation, mainly because at present the current downstream overcapacity problem is prominent, coupled with the plasticizer profitability is weak, often located near the cost side of the hovering, plant expansion and willingness to put into production is not high, 2024, DOP no new projects, DOTP only a small number of devices under construction, downstream demand increase is limited.
In 2024, China's octanol market will mainly operate in the range, and the market trading range may be lower than that in 2023.

n-Butanol
Supply of n-butanol will grow significantly in 2024.
The downstream capacity growth rate of n-butanol is much smaller than the capacity growth rate of n-butanol, there is no clear new downstream capacity release in 2024, the demand side of the growth is more limited, the downstream butyl ester and plasticizer products are currently in the vicinity of the capacity utilization rate of 5-6%, the capacity utilization rate is low.
In 2024, China's n-butanol market will continue the weak shock trend, and the overall fluctuation space is expected to shrink compared with 2023.

DOP
There is no new capacity plan for DOP industry in 2024, and the supply of DOP is expected to be relatively stable. Considering the factors of part of the surplus and the stage of overhaul of the device, the DOP industry will operate in the range of 5-6%.
It is expected that in 2024 the terminal PVC soft products industry on DOP will still maintain the level of demand, although there is no lack of centralized replenishment brought about by the amount of delivery, but this phenomenon is basically cyclical obvious.
In 2024, China DOP market will continue to relatively high range oscillation trend, the overall fluctuation space than 2023 or change little. In addition, there is no new production capacity of DOP next year, and the supply of goods may show a relatively stable state.