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Natural rubber market review in April
2024-05-08

In April, domestic natural rubber futures rose first and then fell. The Middle East geopolitical tensions escalated, international oil prices and metal prices continued to strengthen, most commodities rose. China's Yunnan producing areas due to drought led to rubber plantations stop cutting, further baked rubber market bullish atmosphere, after the Qingming Festival rubber futures rose shockingly, 19 RU2409 contract rose to the highest 15190 points this month. However, the U.S. March CPI exceeded expectations, the Fed rate cut is expected to decline rapidly, as well as geopolitical conflict impact weakened, international crude oil and metal prices fell back. Natural rubber spot trading at high prices is blocked; domestic rubber dumping; after the rainfall, the second half of China's Yunnan production area reopened; part of the all-steel tyre enterprises plan to early holiday, etc., the natural rubber market inside and outside the news is negative, the market in the second half of the quotes shocked down. ru2409 contract on the 25th the lowest fell to 13,955 points. The industry buy low, the end of the month, the market stopped falling finishing.

Although China, Thailand, northern and eastern Thailand, northern Vietnam, a small part of the region and other producing areas such as cutting, the current high temperature and dry climate on the upper reaches of the rubber cutting process is still disturbed, Vietnam's south-central is expected to cut delayed to early May, southern Thailand is expected to be cut in mid-May, the beginning of the cutting of the glue output is small, the supply of new rubber is not under pressure.

Demand, "May Day" holiday, a number of all-steel tyres, small and medium-sized tyres and other products enterprises have 5-7 days of production shutdown holiday plan, semi-steel tyres, a small number of enterprises also have overhaul plans to drag the downstream capacity utilisation rate declined at the beginning of the month. Semi-steel tyre enterprises overall shipments are better, especially foreign trade orders, inventory levels are at a relatively low level, is expected to maintain high production, while the full-steel tyre enterprise inventory pressure is greater, limiting the follow-up of the overall start-up.

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