In the second half of 2022, China's natural rubber market will show an upward trend after consolidation. In the second half of the year, the supply of natural rubber gradually increased, and the fourth quarter was the peak of natural rubber import, and the market supply remained abundant. Downstream demand is expected to improve. In the first half of the year, the domestic market was poor due to the impact of the epidemic. With the accelerated recovery of economic activities in the second half of the year, it is expected that the downstream demand environment will improve. However, the abundant arbitrage funds will suppress the rebound space above the rubber market.

In China's natural rubber market in the second half of 2022, the fundamental and macro market are the main factors affecting price fluctuations. In the second half of the year, the supply of natural rubber market showed a trend of gradual increase, but we need to pay attention to whether extreme weather, pests and diseases can provide speculation support for the supply side. The production of all latex products for delivery in the second quarter was reduced due to the diversion of raw materials. We will continue to pay attention to the production of the whole year. If the production is reduced, it will also provide support for bulls. Due to the closing of the arbitrage window this year and the large fluctuation of the exchange rate, the import volume of natural rubber in the whole year may fall back from the high level in previous years. Although the demand environment in the downstream of rubber has improved, the factories are accustomed to replenishment, which has a relatively limited impact on the market. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has affected the global energy industry chain and adversely affected the economy. As global inflation intensifies, the European and American central banks maintain the pace of interest rate hikes, and macro market risks remain. The domestic policy is relatively loose, and the focus is on whether the fund sentiment in the fourth quarter can drive the rise of rubber futures.