Looking back to the first half of the year, although China's natural rubber production was released slowly, due to the weakening of overseas demand, more supplies of natural rubber turned to China, imports increased greatly, while domestic downstream demand turned from strong to weak, intensifying the pressure on the spot market, so that the natural rubber spot stocks continued to accumulate in the first half of the year.
Natural rubber market supply and demand situation outlook for the second half of 2023
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the supply and demand situation in the natural rubber market will face the contradiction between the seasonal increase in supply and the expected weakening of downstream demand, and the spot inventory of dark rubber in Qingdao region may continue to be high, thus suppressing the upward space of the natural rubber market price in the second half of the year.
The second half of the global natural rubber producing areas will be fully cut on the amount of supply season gradually come. China's Yunnan and Hainan producing areas with sufficient rainfall, conducive to the release of glue production capacity, overseas Vietnam, Cambodia producing areas have been large areas of cutting, raw material production gradually increased; Thailand's producing areas in June into the rainy season, raw materials have not yet been released significantly, but also conducive to the market cut rubber work to promote the seasonal supply of raw materials around the globe will be gradually on the amount.
China's natural rubber imports in the second half of the year is expected to show a gradual increase in the trend, mainly due to the regularity of natural rubber production. The second half of Southeast Asia's main natural rubber production areas gradually increase production, especially in November-December for the season, but also the most peak of China's natural rubber imports over the years, and alternative planting indicators will be issued into the Yunnan market, so the second half of the day rubber imports gradually increased.
Production, it is expected that the second half of the all-steel tire business start rate slightly lower, all-steel tire sales pressure continues to climb, semi-steel tires due to foreign trade orders to support, the start rate or maintain a high level. Market, it is expected that the second half of the tire factory shipments are slowing down trend, domestic replacement and supporting customer replenishment intentions weakened, channels and terminals are mainly to digest the inventory, the export market is limited to new orders, shipments are difficult to improve.