Since the second quarter of this year, the overall performance of rubber has been sluggish, especially since the beginning of May has maintained an oscillating downward rhythm. The rubber index once fell below the 13,000 integer mark in early June, and maintained at the 13,000 mark. The first-line shock operation continued until late July . Since then, the market has stabilized and began to rebound strongly and continues to this day.

1. The output of rubber-producing countries has rebounded steadily, and China's imports have been declining month after month

In terms of production in rubber-producing countries, according to the latest revised data from ANRPC, the output of rubber-producing countries has continued to increase steadily in the past three months. Since the output exceeded 800,000 tons in May and reached 834,000 tons, the output has remained above 800,000 tons for three consecutive months, reached 900,000 tons in June, and exceeded 1 million tons in July, reaching 1.011 million tons, ahead of 2020. After two months, three months ahead of 2019, the cumulative output in the first seven months was 5.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.49%. As far as the main producing countries are concerned, the output of the four major rubber producing countries has been steadily increasing. In July, the output of Thailand increased sharply to 408,000 tons, an increase of nearly 80,000 tons from the previous month. Indonesia and Malaysia also increased slightly, and continued to maintain year-on-year growth. Growth, Vietnam’s output in July was flat month-on-month, but fell sharply year-on-year, reaching 35.5%.

China's production has maintained steady growth in the past three months. The output reached 87,000 tons in May, 89,000 tons in June, and 100,000 tons in July, which was the same as Vietnam’s output in the same month. In terms of imports, the output in the last three months has reached 87,000 tons. Within a month, it maintained a continuous month-on-month weakness. In May, the import volume was 454,000 tons, and in June it fell to 388,000 tons. Compared with the same period in previous years, this situation is very rare. As far as the production area is concerned, the recent increase in rainfall in the Yunnan production area has hindered rubber tapping and low raw material output. At this stage, the yield of rubber trees is basically stable. With the gradual end of the rainy season, Banna is about to enter a high-yield period; Hainan production area has a significant increase in rainfall recently, and the rainfall is mainly concentrated in the afternoon. The rubber bark is wet and the rubber farmers cannot tap the rubber normally, which has a certain impact on the rubber tapping.

2. Tire starts fell year-on-year, and tire output fell month after month

In terms of the start of downstream tire factories, although there has been a recovery since the May 1st holiday this year, the recovery is significantly weaker than in the past few years. The overall situation of tire operations in the past three months has shown two unfavorable trends: on the one hand, the overall level of tire operations is low. In the past three years, the operating range of both all-steel tires and semi-steel tires has dropped significantly, the core operating range of all-steel tires has dropped to 555-65%, and the core operating range of semi-steel tires has fallen to 55%-60 %; On the other hand, the monthly operating rate fluctuates more and the stability of the start-up is significantly weakened. The operating rate of all-steel tires and semi-steel tires has dropped to 55% or below several times in the last 3 months, even in Africa The holiday period fell below 45%.

In terms of tire production, due to the low operating rate, production has also been significantly affected. China's monthly production should be steadily increasing during the period of previous years, showing a trend of monthly decline, from 83.04 million in April to May. However, the absolute level of monthly output during the period was still higher than the same period in the past two years, and the year-on-year increase was not small.

3. Destocking continued in Qingdao area, and futures warehouse receipts increased slowly

According to the statistics of China’s inventory data, China’s natural rubber stocks are still destocking. The general trade stocks in Qingdao reached 713,000 tons at the end of the third quarter of last year, and continued to 713,000 tons at the end of the fourth quarter. However, it still maintains the state of de-stocking. Although there was a slight rebound in the middle of the first quarter, but the range is limited, and then on the road of decline again, the decline has been large in the past three months, and it has reached 411,700 tons and is on the verge of 400,000 tons; The bonded natural rubber inventory in Qingdao has been in a downward trend since the end of September 2019. It is still operating below 100,000 tons, and is currently at a low level, reaching a low of 76,700 tons.

In terms of domestic futures stocks, the growth rate of stocks has slowed down significantly since it appeared at about 160,000 tons in early January this year. It was only 175,000 tons at the end of June. In the past one and a half months, the stock volume has continued to increase slowly and is still above 181,000 tons. The warehouse receipt pressure is still not great.

4. Oil prices are under pressure from increasing production, and the trend of energy and chemical products is divided

After OPEC reached an agreement to increase production in mid-July, international oil prices, which were on an upward trend, were under heavy pressure, and they corrected sharply. However, they gradually stabilized and are still weak. Generally speaking, they are in the mid-term operation mechanism. After a collective decline, the trend gradually diverged. The variety trend tended to reflect the fundamentals of its own industry, with declines and rises. Among them, asphalt, fuel and other oil-related products with strong oil prices remained weak, the polyester industry chain was in a rising trend, and coal chemical-related products performed Also strong, rubber futures have generally belonged to the rising echelon since late July.

5. Looking forward to the future

For the later period, Hujiao found support at the 13000 integer mark, and rebounded strongly against the background of the deterioration of the fundamentals. Index) Adjacent mid-term pressure, as time enters the golden nine silver ten golden period immediately, China's tire operating rate is in the recovery phase, and the downward pressure on China's terminal car production and sales is decreasing. For the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter, the mid-term remained strong. Trends are expected to remind investors to pay attention to the recovery of China's imports and changes in inventory trends.