At present, the main factors affecting the price fluctuation of natural rubber can be roughly summarized into the following eight factors:

1. Supply and demand of international natural rubber market and export market of major rubber producing countries

The supply of natural rubber in the international market is completely controlled by a few countries such as Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. The United States and Japan, the big users of natural rubber, do not produce natural rubber, and their demand is completely dependent on imports, and their price support for natural rubber is also obvious. my country is also the world's second largest importer of natural rubber, and has a direct impact on international rubber prices.

2. International market transactions

Natural rubber has become a typical tropical commodity futures variety in the world, occupying a certain share in the futures trading in the Far East and Southeast Asia. At present, the main natural rubber futures trading are: Tokyo Industrial Products Exchange (TOCOM), Kobe Rubber Exchange (KOBE), Singapore RAS Commodity Exchange, and Kuala Lumpur Commodity Exchange (KLCE). Among them, the Tokyo and Singapore transactions have the greatest impact. Because of their large market share, they can reflect the basic dynamics of the world rubber market.

3. The international natural rubber agreement signed by the member countries of the International Natural Rubber Organization (INRO) will also have an important impact on the price trend of the rubber market.

4. Production and consumption of natural rubber in my country

The quantity and cost of natural rubber production in my country are directly related to the price of the domestic rubber market. At the same time, changes in the amount of domestic natural rubber used and the ability of processing enterprises to accept the price of natural rubber also affect the price level of natural rubber.

5. my country's import policy and tax rate for natural rubber

In the past two years, the domestic rubber market has been seriously affected due to the impact of border trade, processing with fake materials and a large amount of smuggled rubber. Therefore, the country has implemented quota license management for imported natural rubber while combating smuggling. Imported natural rubber includes: the processing part (zero tariff is implemented, and it is not subject to quota license restrictions since October 1, 1999), the double-restricted part (restriction of flow and use, 5% tariff in 1997 and 1998, adjusted in 1999) 10%) and the general trade portion (25% before 2000). The processing part and the double-limited part are called the tariff reduction and exemption part. The customs tracks the natural rubber imported in these two ways and supervises its use and flow. Only the general trade part can enter the circulation market and participate in the futures market. delivery. From January 1, 2000, the state officially established the project of "in-quota tax rate" for imported natural rubber. Such tax rates are fully tax-paid. The state does not restrict its flow and use, and does not track them, and it can enter the circulation market. And participate in the delivery of the futures market. Among them, the in-quota tax rate of imported tobacco sheet rubber RSS3 is 12%, and the out-of-quota tax rate is 90% and 125%.

6. Production and application of synthetic rubber, including the market situation of crude oil, the upstream product of synthetic rubber

Natural rubber and synthetic rubber can be used as substitutes for each other in some products. Therefore, when the supply of natural rubber is tight or the price tends to rise, the amount of synthetic rubber will increase, and the market positions of the two are complementary. In addition, because synthetic rubber is a petrochemical product, oil prices will affect the price level of synthetic rubber, and changes in the price level of synthetic rubber will affect the demand for natural rubber, which cannot be ignored.

7. Development of major rubber industries, such as tires and related auto industries

The main user of natural rubber is tires, and the prosperity of the tire industry directly affects the natural rubber market. The automobile industry is also a big user of tires, so the development of the automobile industry and the national policy on the automobile industry will affect the demand for tires and the demand for natural rubber.

8. Natural factors: seasonal changes and climate change

Glue is generally collected after sloping incisions on the bark of rubber trees that are 5-7 years old. Rubber trees can generally be collected for 25-30 years. Rubber trees are harvested year-round, but their yields vary seasonally. The growth of rubber trees requires a high temperature and rainy environment, with an average annual temperature of 26-32. It is cultivated in tropical areas with an average annual rainfall of more than 2000mm, so its production area is distributed in latitude 10 north and south. Within C, it is mostly concentrated in Southeast Asia. Since natural rubber is a tree that grows for many years, the supply cannot be adjusted in a short period of time, and the market change cycle is long.