In 2021, Hujiao will be dominated by shocks, and the overall volatility will be smaller than in 2020. Compared with 2020, the impact of the epidemic on the market has become phased, and the supply of natural rubber has rebounded from the previous year, while the recovery situation on the demand side is not very satisfactory. The impact of chip shortages on the automobile manufacturing industry is greater than expected. In addition, the monetary policy represented by the Federal Reserve has been gradually adjusted from easing to tightening, which has a systemic impact on the commodity market. The trend of Hujiao in 2021 is mainly divided into two stages.

From January to February, the rubber price broke through after the shock consolidation. At the beginning of 2021, due to the virus mutation in the UK and the repeated international epidemic situation, the market is in a wait-and-see atmosphere. After the Spring Festival, the number of newly diagnosed new crown infections in the world has dropped for 5 consecutive weeks, and the overseas new crown epidemic is expected to be brought under control. In addition, the new economic stimulus policy in the United States is about to be implemented, which will boost investor sentiment on the macro side. Moreover, after the holiday, downstream enterprises have resumed work quickly one after another, superimposed that the major rubber-producing countries are about to stop cutting, the supply and demand situation is relatively positive, and the main contract rubber price has exceeded 17,000 yuan.

However, profit-taking in many parties has caused pressure, and the rise in US Treasury bond yields has raised concerns that the loose monetary policy may be gradually tightened. Important commodities, including crude oil and non-ferrous metals, generally rose and fell, and rubber prices appeared V-shaped at the end of February. Invert. The main Hujiao contract fell by more than 2,000 yuan in six trading days, returning to the vicinity of the pre-Spring Festival sorting area.

In the second quarter, the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia and India was more serious. The downstream industry had to reduce the start of production due to the concentrated production and easy to cause human infection. The decline in demand caused great pressure on rubber prices. Thailand and Malaysia have tightened control over the concentration and movement of people, and it is difficult for natural rubber consumption to return to normal in the short term.

The upstream rubber tapping link is relatively less affected by the epidemic. The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) expects that global production will resume growth in 2021, and the phased difference between supply and demand will have a positive impact on rubber prices.